Link to the original article

By Jasper Kenzo Sundeen, Yakima Herald-Republic

As the dust settles after the 2024 election, people are sizing up options and opportunities under a new state government and a new presidency.

Incoming Governor Bob Ferguson and returning President Donald Trump are ironing out the specifics of how they will implement their campaign promises, and hiring people to implement their policies.

Meanwhile, agricultural experts and immigrant rights activists are thinking about what the election could mean for Central Washington residents.

Agriculture is a major industry in the Yakima Valley that will be affected by changes in foreign trade, like tariffs, and labor policies or deregulation. Immigrants and foreign laborers also make up a big part of the workforce in Washington, and local industries likely will be affected by border policy.

The Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think-tank, estimates that there could be 24,000 unauthorized immigrants in Yakima County.

At the state level, a new governor and legislative leaders are likely to bring changes.

Here's a look at some possible changes and how they might play out here, from tariffs to deportations to the H-2A foreign guestworker program:

What would Trump tariffs mean for farms?

One of the major issues that pushed Trump into the Oval Office was dissatisfaction with the economy. In Washington's agricultural sector, experts are trying to figure out what a Trump presidency might mean.

Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association, said it’s difficult to tell. That’s primarily due to Trump’s promise to put up tariffs.

“There are mixed feelings among a lot of growers,” DeVaney said.

Tariffs are extra fees that a country can place on goods that are being imported from overseas. Depending on the flexibility of the good’s price, that cost may or may not be passed on to consumers.

There is excitement about the potential for less regulation and more domestic business, but concern about exports if there is retaliation to U.S. tariffs, DeVaney said.

“Would the tariffs on imports balance out with domestic markets?” DeVaney asked.

During Trump’s first term, retaliatory tariffs restricted the export markets for some U.S. goods, including Washington’s apples. For example, India kept tariffs on apples from 2019 to 2023, cutting off producers from a previously lucrative market.

On Tuesday, Trump promised to put in 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on imports from China. Mexican officials quickly promised retaliatory tariffs.

The tariffs could raise the prices and restrict the flow of foreign goods that compete with domestic products, including in agriculture. DeVaney, however, was unsure that the U.S. agricultural market could adjust soon enough in the face of tariffs.

He noted that demand is different in the U.S. compared to overseas markets. It can take years for agricultural growers to prepare a crop to meet a specific demand. It would take time for growers to modify infrastructure and orchards to meet a different set of demands.

“It’s not a sure thing that things would realign that easily or soon enough to not cause harm,” DeVaney said.

But some growers think the risk is worth it.

“First off, I’m looking at the betterment of the country as a whole,” said Rob Valicoff, a Yakima Valley grower.

Valicoff Family Farms is a local business based in Wapato. Valicoff said the tariffs could impact domestic farmers, but that they would adjust in the long run. Tariffs would reduce competition against foreign producers who usually have lower costs.

“When stuff comes in from other countries, we get beat up,” Valicoff said. “Somebody has to sacrifice for the country.”

Labor advocates like Edgar Franks are worried those sacrifices could also be paid by workers and low-income households. Franks is the political director for Familias Unidas por la Justicia, or FUJ, an independent farmworker union based in the Skagit Valley.

“If something like that happens, tariffs might have a bad effect on raising people’s wages,” Franks said.

If employer revenue drops, workers will get paid less, Franks said. If tariffs create higher prices, particularly for essentials like food and housing, things could be even more difficult.

That’s been a concern for low-income farmworkers who are reliant on seasonal labor, Franks said.

“Most people make under $20,000 a year,” Franks said.

Speaking of farmworkers

The economy is a huge concern for farmworkers. People just want to make ends meet, said Antonio De Loera, the communications director for the United Farm Workers union.

Deportations are on peoples’ minds.

“Many farmworkers are nervous or afraid given the threats Donald Trump has made to carry out mass deportations,” De Loera said.

De Loera said UFW would defend its members regardless of immigration status.

Franks called Trump's proposed deportation of illegal immigrants the No. 1 concern among FUJ’s members.

“Things are going to get more difficult, not just for farmworkers, but for immigrants in general. That’s one of the concerns for the union and for people reaching out to us,” Franks said.

Deportations could impact communities, Franks said. If people are deported en masse, local culture and economies could suffer. In Yakima County alone, for example, there could be 24,000 fewer people showing up at community events or eating at local restaurants or stores.

“What would happen if this becomes a reality, if overnight hundreds of people are rounded up and deported?” Franks asked.

In the agricultural industry, experts are figuring out what Trump’s deportation plans could mean.

“When we hear proposals about moving all undocumented immigrants, there’s a concern,” DeVaney said.

Labor costs and shortages are already huge concerns to local growers, who have started to turn to costly foreign guestworkers to make up for shortages. There’s no ready replacement for deported workers if the labor pool shrinks, DeVaney added.

Enrique Gastelum overees Wafla, a regional organization that assists growers with foreign labor applications. He isn’t quite sure what to expect with a Trump presidency.

Trump has discussed deportation and Gastelum noted that Washington growers could be employing undocumented workers with false papers. It’s difficult to estimate how many undocumented workers there might be, he added.

He said federal officials could focus on undocumented immigrants with a criminal history or who don’t qualify for asylum, a smaller group of people.

Immigrant rights groups ready

Immigrant rights groups in Washington are preparing for broader deportation actions. Brenda Rodríguez López is the executive director of the Washington Immigrant Solidarity Network, or WAISN, an organization that advocates for undocumented immigrants and works to track actions by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE.

“We can’t guarantee they’re only going to come for certain folks,” said. “There’s not a specific pattern of only certain people being detained.”

Rodríguez López said in the past, ICE has detained undocumented immigrants it encounters in its operations, regardless of criminal background.

WAISN is one of several groups preparing for increased detentions and deportations.

“We are not starting from zero, this is a place we’ve been before,” Rodríguez López said, referring to Trump’s first presidency, when the organization was founded.

WAISN has a hotline people can call for legal aid during deportation or detention, a fund for bonding undocumented detainees out of detention and rapid response teams to assist people facing detention, including one in Yakima.

Rodríguez López said WAISN is responding to the Trump presidency by offering more legal aid trainings. They’re not the only group doing so. OneAmerica, a statewide nonprofit which focused on voter turnout during the election, is adding "know your rights" trainings for immigrants to its plans.

Organizations are preparing for the future based on the actions of past administrations.

Between 2016 and 2020, Rodríguez López said, Yakima County saw raids and detentions. In the past, Rodríguez López said ICE has pulled over suspects on their way to and from work, come to their homes, targeted businesses owned by or employing immigrants and stopped people at courthouses.

She added that ICE has not gone away during Biden’s presidency, though Rodríguez López does expect the frequency and intensity of ICE activity to change.

“We anticipate seeing (detentions) again because they haven’t stopped,” Rodríguez López said. “People have been getting detained under the Biden administration.”

ICE used the Yakima Air Terminal to transport detainees from 2018 to spring 2023 when it went back to using Boeing Field in King County. The agency chartered private planes to transport people from the Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma.

Will foreign worker programs change?

Labor advocates worry that increased deportations could lead to more foreign guestworkers in agriculture.

Growers say foreign workers and better programs bringing them to the United States are already necessary to shore up labor shortages.

Foreign farmworkers primarily come to the U.S. through the H-2A program, a program which requires employers to pay for travel, housing and set wages for foreign employees when they cannot find enough local labor.

The Biden administration made multiple efforts to change the program which it said were intended to protect workers and make it easier for growers to use. Wafla objected to the changes, and growers are still largely dissatisfied with it.

“The H-2A program has got to be resolved,” said grower Rob Valicoff said.

He added that labor is the biggest cost for growers right now and H-2A workers are needed to supplement a shrinking and aging domestic workforce. Valicoff sees the program as key to future domestic agricultural production and hopes the Trump administration makes pro-business changes.

Gastelum is also keeping a close eye on the H-2A program and Trump’s cabinet picks. Wafla operates as a facilitator for growers seeking foreign workers, helping growers apply for and bring in workers through the H-2A program.

Wafla wants updates to make the program cheaper and simpler.

“Let’s make things less complicated for the industry to use,” Gastelum said. “Our hope is that we can see some meaningful H-2A reform in the next couple of years.”

Trump selected Brooke Rollins, a longtime supporter with some domestic policy experience, as agriculture secretary and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a Oregon Republican who has taken union-friendly stances in her time in Congress, for labor secretary.

Gastelum said those positions are key to changes for the H-2A program.

Farmworker advocates are worried that if the H-2A program is easier to use, though, it will be used to replace deported workers.

“The top priority must be to defend the jobs and expand the legal protections of the existing farm worker population,” De Loera, who represents UFW, said. “We cannot allow for them to be deported, discarded, or replaced by new waves of legally vulnerable and easily exploitable workers in the abusive H2A system.”

Other unions, like FUJ, continue to stand against the H-2A program entirely.

State elections

While federal races for president and congressional seats tend to soak up a lion’s share of the attention, state election results are also impactful.

Governor-elect Ferguson was a progressive attorney general, and businesses and nonprofits are watching to see what he does in office.

“We expect Washington to protect farmworkers even more now,” Franks said. “We expect good things from this new administration for farmworkers.”

Ferguson pursued legal action on behalf of farmworkers as attorney general, including a lawsuit on behalf of Sunnyside mushroom farmworkers. Franks said FUJ plans to hold him to his campaign promises around supporting farmworkers. FUJ is campaigning for more enforcement of protections and more opportunities to build worker power.

Employer-oriented groups like Wafla stand on the other side of the coin – they’re concerned about more regulations.

“I’m all for workers being protected,” Gastelum said. “But there is a tipping point.”

Wafla and the Washington State Tree Fruit Association are both keeping an eye on regulations, which they say increase costs and make it difficult to compete with out of state producers.

“If we implement more expensive programs, how does that impact Washington producers who can’t pass on those costs? Who already aren’t making any money? Who can’t raise prices and stay competitive?” DeVaney said. 

DeVaney was concerned that state officials might respond to the Trump administration by moving policies to the left.

Presidential results show Washington state as a whole shifted slightly right compared to 2020, mirroring the national trend, despite initial predictions. Trump gained more support in Yakima County.

Immigrant advocates plan to push for more protections for immigrants with a progressive governor and attorney general in office.

“We’re going to be bolder than we have been,” said Nicole Castro, a OneAmerica organizer based in Yakima.

OneAmerica will focus on unemployment for undocumented immigrants and affordable child care in the Legislature, she added.

When it comes to agricultural labor specifically, several other policies have garnered interest as state lawmakers prepare to get to work in 2025.

Growers are laser-focused on state overtime laws in agriculture, and want to modify those laws to allow farmworkers to take on more hours without overtime pay during the harvest season.

Meanwhile, everyone has half an eye on potential agricultural labor relations acts. Farmworkers don’t have the right to unionize in the United States, an exclusion dating back to Jim Crow era-policies excluding Black workers from certain rights.

But states can have their own labor relations act for farmworkers and organized labor and employers will have their eyes on any proposals that come out of Olympia.